Central Bank Gold Buying in 2025: A Detailed Overview

As of September 29, 2025, central banks worldwide continue to demonstrate robust demand for gold, solidifying its role as a cornerstone of global reserves amid persistent geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. dollar. This year marks the fourth consecutive year of record-breaking purchases, with institutions on track to acquire over 1,000 metric tons (t) of gold— a sharp escalation from the 400-500t annual average of the prior decade. Year-to-date (YTD) net purchases through August stand at approximately 650-700t, based on reported data, though unreported buying could push the figure higher, as historical patterns suggest official statistics capture only about 20-25% of total demand. Below, we delve into the key data, major players, drivers, and implications for the gold market.

Year-to-Date Net Purchases: Key Figures and Major Buyers

Central banks have added a net 650t+ to their reserves in 2025 through August, with emerging markets leading the charge. This pace reflects a strategic diversification away from fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, toward gold’s enduring attributes as a store of value and crisis hedge.

Top Net Buyers YTD (Through August 2025)

Central Bank	YTD Purchases (tonnes)	Notes
National Bank of Poland	67	Largest buyer; holdings now at 21% of total reserves (497t total). Unchanged since May.
State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ)	~30 (estimated)	Consistent accumulator; exact YTD not fully detailed in August reports.
National Bank of Kazakhstan	25 (through July; + in August)	Aggressive buyer; added 7t in May alone.
People’s Bank of China	40+ (10 consecutive months)	Extended buying spree into August; diversifying from USD holdings.
Central Bank of Turkey	20+	26 consecutive months of net buying; added 6t in May and 2t in July.
Czech National Bank	15+	29 consecutive months; 2t in May and July.

• Q1 2025: Net +290t, led by Poland (49t). Modest sales from Russia (3t), Uzbekistan (15t), and Kyrgyz Republic (2t).

• April-May: Momentum picked up with +40t net in May alone, driven by Kazakhstan (7t), Turkey/Poland (6t each), and China/Czech (2t each). YTD to May: Poland at 67t.

• June-July: Slowed to +10t net in July (Kazakhstan 3t, Turkey/China/Czech 2t each), with Indonesia selling 11t. YTD to July: ~580t.

• August: China added undisclosed tonnes (10th straight month); no comprehensive global data yet, but emerging markets like those in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Uganda’s pilot program) signaled intent for domestic sourcing.

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Sales remain limited, totaling under 50t YTD, primarily from Uzbekistan (27t to May) and Singapore (10t to May). African central banks are accelerating efforts, viewing gold as a buffer against U.S. macro instability and geopolitical risks.

Global reserves now exceed 38,000t, representing ~20% of all gold ever mined.

Monthly Breakdown: Trends in Pace and Participation

• January: +18t net; Uzbekistan (8t), China resumption after pause.

• February-March (Q1 close): Steady at ~80t/month average.

• April: Transitional; data sparse but aligned with Q1 strength.

• May: +20t; broad participation from 10+ banks.

• June: Moderate; contributed to YTD buildup.

• July: +10t (potentially revised to 0t post-Indonesia data); still net positive.

• August: China-led; Uganda announced 2-3 year pilot for artisanal gold purchases to build reserves.

• September (preliminary): No full data as of 29th, but ongoing trends suggest +15-20t, fueled by safe-haven flows amid tariff talks and Fed rate cut expectations.

The slowdown in July highlights price sensitivity—gold averaged $3,200/oz mid-year—but buyers persist, underscoring gold’s “competitive edge” in volatile markets.

Drivers: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold

The 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey (73 respondents, Feb-May) provides deep insights:

• Intentions: Record 43% plan to increase own reserves; 95% expect global rises over next 12 months. Zero anticipate declines.

• Key Reasons: Crisis performance (top factor), diversification (vs. USD exposure), and inflation hedging. 73% foresee lower USD share in reserves over five years, with gold, euro, and renminbi gaining.

• Management Shifts: Active gold strategies up to 44% (from 37% in 2024); risk management now second to returns. Domestic storage rose to 59%, though vaulting preferences favor Bank of England (64%).

• Broader Context: Geopolitical risks (e.g., U.S. fiscal deficits, Fed independence concerns), inflation, and bond market divergences drive the shift. As one analyst noted, “Gold’s rise in reserves appears unstoppable” amid Treasury stability doubts.

Emerging markets cite de-dollarization; Poland’s governor emphasized “financial security and stability.”

Impact on Gold Prices and Market Dynamics

Central bank demand has been a pillar of gold’s 2025 rally, contributing ~25% of total demand and pushing prices to $3,820/oz by late September. This buying absorbs supply, counters ETF outflows, and amplifies safe-haven flows during uncertainty (e.g., tariffs, rate cuts). Forecasts: J.P. Morgan sees $3,675/oz Q4 average, rising to $4,000 mid-2026; Citigroup targets $3,800 short-term.

Outlook: Sustained Momentum into 2026

With 81% of surveyed bankers expecting rises through 2026, and on pace for another 1,000t year, central bank buying remains a bullish force. Risks include a stronger USD or resolved geopolitics, but current trajectories favor continued accumulation—especially from China, Poland, and African/Asian peers.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is informational; consult professionals for investment decisions.